Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 84¢ · $156 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 71%
$156.34
$8.82
70.1¢ → 83.5¢
+19% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 84%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $40.4 | $40 | -$0.4 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 70.3¢ | $33.04 | $39.48 | +$6.44 | 36% 3035-5349 (8384) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $21 | $25.2 | +$4.2 | 29% 854-2135 (2989) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.2 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $13.6 | $16.8 | +$3.2 | 41% 3059-4446 (7505) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $15.28 | $11.78 | -$3.5 | 13% 16-109 (125) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $42.45 | $3.08 | -$0.92 | 50% 22-22 (44) |
Invested
$40.4
Value
$40
PnL
-$0.4
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$33.04
Value
$39.48
PnL
+$6.44
Record
36%
3035-5349 (8384)
Invested
$21
Value
$25.2
PnL
+$4.2
Record
29%
854-2135 (2989)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$20
PnL
-$0.2
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
Invested
$13.6
Value
$16.8
PnL
+$3.2
Record
41%
3059-4446 (7505)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$15.28
Value
$11.78
PnL
-$3.5
Record
13%
16-109 (125)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$42.45
Value
$3.08
PnL
-$0.92
Record
50%
22-22 (44)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.