Will Zay Flowers have 774.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 85¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 27, 2027
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Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$1.4K
$34.98
73¢ → 85¢
+16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EN End123 | Yesavg 72.6¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$109.03 | 63% 345-204 (549) |
ND ndb1CTR | Noavg 27¢ | $269.99 | $195 | -$75 | 64% 1168-660 (1828) |
 Robbb<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $30.84 | $28.21 | -$2.63 | 78% 2520-697 (3217) |
CR crckrCTR<$100 | Noavg 15.7¢ | $14.57 | $18.14 | +$3.58 | 27% 862-2377 (3239) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.