XRP Up or Down - November 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 50¢ · $38 held · ends Nov 9

Up50¢Down50¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

Total Value

$37.67

Combined PnL

$10.83

Research grade

NeutralUp at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up50%

Down50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down2 traders

Total Value$20.4

Total Shares41

Combined PnL+$11.81

Up3 traders

Total Value$17.28

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.98

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 17.2¢	$5.28	$15.4	+$10.11	39% 196-309 (505)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 76¢	$11.06	$7.28	-$3.78	59% 517-356 (873)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 48¢	$4.8	$5	+$0.2	43% 234-313 (547)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 33¢	$3.3	$5	+$1.7	41% 240-345 (585)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 34¢	$2.4	$5	+$2.6	55% 326-268 (594)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$5.28

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$10.11

Record

39%

196-309 (505)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$11.06

Value

$7.28

PnL

-$3.78

Record

59%

517-356 (873)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

PnL

+$0.2

Record

43%

234-313 (547)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$3.3

Value

PnL

+$1.7

Record

41%

240-345 (585)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

PnL

+$2.6

Record

55%

326-268 (594)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 50%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.