XRP Up or Down - November 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 100¢ · $81 held · ended Nov 9

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

Total Value

$80.8

Combined PnL

$6.52

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$53.64

Total Shares61

Combined PnL+$5.42

Up2 traders

Total Value$27.16

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$1.11

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 83¢	$46.1	$28.98	-$1.87	59% 517-356 (873)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$24.31	$24.44	+$0.13	39% 196-309 (505)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 57.5¢	$14.57	$16	+$1.43	45% 212-258 (470)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 43¢	$2.65	$6.16	+$3.51	41% 240-345 (585)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 32¢	$1.74	$2.72	+$0.98	43% 234-313 (547)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 3¢	$0.15	$2.5	+$2.35	55% 326-268 (594)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$46.1

Value

$28.98

PnL

-$1.87

Record

59%

517-356 (873)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$24.31

Value

$24.44

PnL

+$0.13

Record

39%

196-309 (505)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$14.57

Value

$16

PnL

+$1.43

Record

45%

212-258 (470)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$2.65

Value

$6.16

PnL

+$3.51

Record

41%

240-345 (585)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.74

Value

$2.72

PnL

+$0.98

Record

43%

234-313 (547)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$0.15

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$2.35

Record

55%

326-268 (594)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.