XRP Up or Down - November 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (70%) · Up at 100¢ · $109 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Up
10
Up 70%
$108.61
$9.18
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 81.6¢ | $61.19 | $56.09 | +$2.2 | 65% 130595-70363 (200958) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 27.5¢ | $4.86 | $17.69 | +$12.82 | 55% 51983-43098 (95081) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 55.7¢ | $13.11 | $11.76 | -$1.35 | 52% 12424-11464 (23888) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $6.1 | $10 | +$3.9 | 63% 42601-25341 (67942) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $5 | $7.14 | +$2.14 | 65% 114783-61840 (176623) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $3.51 | $5.31 | +$1.81 | 66% 130929-67744 (198673) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $0.8 | $0.61 | -$0.19 | 56% 77597-59898 (137495) |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $4.25 | $0.01 | -$4.24 | 55% 50272-41872 (92144) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Downavg 17¢ | $4.02 | $0.01 | -$4.01 | 55% 52459-42905 (95364) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $3.9 | $0.01 | -$3.9 | 61% 98840-62760 (161600) |
Invested
$61.19
Value
$56.09
PnL
+$2.2
Record
65%
130595-70363 (200958)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.86
Value
$17.69
PnL
+$12.82
Record
55%
51983-43098 (95081)
Invested
$13.11
Value
$11.76
PnL
-$1.35
Record
52%
12424-11464 (23888)
ohioism<$100Invested
$6.1
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.9
Record
63%
42601-25341 (67942)
Invested
$5
Value
$7.14
PnL
+$2.14
Record
65%
114783-61840 (176623)
Invested
$3.51
Value
$5.31
PnL
+$1.81
Record
66%
130929-67744 (198673)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.61
PnL
-$0.19
Record
56%
77597-59898 (137495)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$4.24
Record
55%
50272-41872 (92144)
Invested
$4.02
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$4.01
Record
55%
52459-42905 (95364)
Invested
$3.9
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$3.9
Record
61%
98840-62760 (161600)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.