XRP Up or Down - November 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 100¢ · $54 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Up
6
Up 67%
$54.17
-$8.29
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 76.1¢ | $34.9 | $21.67 | -$13.23 | 56% 77597-59898 (137495) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $5.25 | $10 | +$4.75 | 55% 51983-43098 (95081) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $9.5 | $10 | +$0.5 | 49% 10705-11356 (22061) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 99.1¢ | $10.49 | $7.5 | -$2.99 | 66% 130929-67744 (198673) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 35.6¢ | $1.78 | $2.5 | +$0.72 | 63% 42601-25341 (67942) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.6¢ | $0.53 | $2.5 | +$1.97 | 61% 46262-29448 (75710) |
Invested
$34.9
Value
$21.67
PnL
-$13.23
Record
56%
77597-59898 (137495)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.25
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.75
Record
55%
51983-43098 (95081)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$9.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.5
Record
49%
10705-11356 (22061)
Invested
$10.49
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$2.99
Record
66%
130929-67744 (198673)
ohioism<$100Invested
$1.78
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.72
Record
63%
42601-25341 (67942)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.53
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$1.97
Record
61%
46262-29448 (75710)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.