XRP Up or Down - November 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 100¢ · $381 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Up
7
Up 100%
$381.38
-$40.72
90.5¢ → 99.5¢
+10% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $233.71 | $237.28 | +$3.58 | 89% 29598-3561 (33159) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8 | Upavg 96.5¢ | $149.94 | $104.26 | -$42.62 | 65% 130560-70335 (200895) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 61.8¢ | $14.22 | $13.45 | -$0.76 | 65% 114761-61818 (176579) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 60.3¢ | $9.48 | $9.23 | -$0.25 | 55% 51953-43063 (95016) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 91.1¢ | $12.04 | $6.61 | -$5.43 | 66% 130888-67724 (198612) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.11 | $5.55 | +$5.44 | 59% 63942-45092 (109034) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 56.7¢ | $5.67 | $5 | -$0.67 | 61% 46245-29424 (75669) |
Invested
$233.71
Value
$237.28
PnL
+$3.58
Record
89%
29598-3561 (33159)
Invested
$149.94
Value
$104.26
PnL
-$42.62
Record
65%
130560-70335 (200895)
Invested
$14.22
Value
$13.45
PnL
-$0.76
Record
65%
114761-61818 (176579)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$9.48
Value
$9.23
PnL
-$0.25
Record
55%
51953-43063 (95016)
Invested
$12.04
Value
$6.61
PnL
-$5.43
Record
66%
130888-67724 (198612)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$5.55
PnL
+$5.44
Record
59%
63942-45092 (109034)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$5.67
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.67
Record
61%
46245-29424 (75669)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.