XRP Up or Down - November 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 100¢ · $29 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 80%
$29.11
-$5.93
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $16.5 | $12.5 | -$4 | 56% 77586-59890 (137476) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 52.1¢ | $7.81 | $7.5 | -$0.31 | 65% 130560-70335 (200895) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 63.6¢ | $4.02 | $4.11 | +$0.09 | 55% 51953-43063 (95016) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 62.7¢ | $3.13 | $2.5 | -$0.63 | 65% 114761-61818 (176579) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 71.5¢ | $3.57 | $2.5 | -$1.07 | 66% 130888-67724 (198612) |
Invested
$16.5
Value
$12.5
PnL
-$4
Record
56%
77586-59890 (137476)
Invested
$7.81
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$0.31
Record
65%
130560-70335 (200895)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.02
Value
$4.11
PnL
+$0.09
Record
55%
51953-43063 (95016)
Invested
$3.13
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.63
Record
65%
114761-61818 (176579)
Invested
$3.57
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$1.07
Record
66%
130888-67724 (198612)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.