XRP Up or Down - November 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (100%) · Up at 100¢ · $142 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Up
6
Up 100%
$142.37
-$123.6
93.7¢ → 99.5¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 88.7¢ | $94.23 | $53.09 | -$41.13 | 56% 77586-59890 (137476) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $98 | $50 | -$48 | 89% 29598-3561 (33159) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 99.1¢ | $47.55 | $24 | -$23.55 | 65% 130560-70335 (200895) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 98.8¢ | $14.81 | $7.5 | -$7.31 | 66% 130888-67724 (198612) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 79.7¢ | $10.33 | $6.87 | -$3.46 | 55% 51953-43063 (95016) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 57.7¢ | $1.04 | $0.91 | -$0.14 | 65% 114761-61818 (176579) |
Invested
$94.23
Value
$53.09
PnL
-$41.13
Record
56%
77586-59890 (137476)
Invested
$98
Value
$50
PnL
-$48
Record
89%
29598-3561 (33159)
Invested
$47.55
Value
$24
PnL
-$23.55
Record
65%
130560-70335 (200895)
Invested
$14.81
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$7.31
Record
66%
130888-67724 (198612)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$10.33
Value
$6.87
PnL
-$3.46
Record
55%
51953-43063 (95016)
Invested
$1.04
Value
$0.91
PnL
-$0.14
Record
65%
114761-61818 (176579)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.