XRP Up or Down - November 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (71%) · Down at 100¢ · $68 held · ends Nov 7

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

Total Value

$67.87

Combined PnL

-$26.65

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$52.22

Total Shares104

Combined PnL-$34.09

Up2 traders

Total Value$15.65

Total Shares31

Combined PnL+$7.44

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 78.8¢	$52.75	$33.48	-$19.28	56% 77586-59890 (137476)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 32.4¢	$6.91	$10.65	+$3.74	65% 114739-61779 (176518)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 96.8¢	$16.63	$8.59	-$8.04	66% 130853-67700 (198553)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 13¢	$1.3	$5	+$3.7	55% 51918-43034 (94952)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 78¢	$7.27	$4.66	-$2.61	56% 60702-47212 (107914)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 99.1¢	$5.94	$3	-$2.94	61% 98777-62719 (161496)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 74.4¢	$3.72	$2.5	-$1.22	65% 130517-70309 (200826)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$52.75

Value

$33.48

PnL

-$19.28

Record

56%

77586-59890 (137476)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$6.91

Value

$10.65

PnL

+$3.74

Record

65%

114739-61779 (176518)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$16.63

Value

$8.59

PnL

-$8.04

Record

66%

130853-67700 (198553)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$1.3

Value

PnL

+$3.7

Record

55%

51918-43034 (94952)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$7.27

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$2.61

Record

56%

60702-47212 (107914)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$5.94

Value

PnL

-$2.94

Record

61%

98777-62719 (161496)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$3.72

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$1.22

Record

65%

130517-70309 (200826)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.