XRP Up or Down - November 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 100¢ · $26 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 60%
$25.6
-$3.17
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $12.12 | $9 | -$3.12 | 65% 130517-70309 (200826) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.9¢ | $0.4 | $7.08 | +$6.67 | 59% 63938-45089 (109027) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $9.3 | $5.03 | -$4.27 | 66% 130853-67700 (198553) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98.1¢ | $6.87 | $3.5 | -$3.37 | 61% 98777-62719 (161496) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $0.08 | $1 | +$0.92 | 55% 51918-43034 (94952) |
Invested
$12.12
Value
$9
PnL
-$3.12
Record
65%
130517-70309 (200826)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$7.08
PnL
+$6.67
Record
59%
63938-45089 (109027)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$5.03
PnL
-$4.27
Record
66%
130853-67700 (198553)
Invested
$6.87
Value
$3.5
PnL
-$3.37
Record
61%
98777-62719 (161496)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.08
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.92
Record
55%
51918-43034 (94952)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.