XRP Up or Down - November 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (67%) · Up at 100¢ · $54 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Up
6
Up 67%
$53.58
-$1.17
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $0.93 | $15.46 | +$14.54 | 59% 63938-45089 (109027) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 99.1¢ | $24.77 | $12.5 | -$12.27 | 74% 105153-37109 (142262) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 19.1¢ | $3.83 | $10 | +$6.17 | 55% 51918-43034 (94952) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $14.5 | $7.56 | -$2.58 | 65% 130517-70309 (200826) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 93.2¢ | $10.36 | $5.56 | -$4.8 | 66% 130853-67700 (198553) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 94.4¢ | $4.72 | $2.5 | -$2.22 | 61% 98777-62719 (161496) |
Invested
$0.93
Value
$15.46
PnL
+$14.54
Record
59%
63938-45089 (109027)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$24.77
Value
$12.5
PnL
-$12.27
Record
74%
105153-37109 (142262)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$3.83
Value
$10
PnL
+$6.17
Record
55%
51918-43034 (94952)
Invested
$14.5
Value
$7.56
PnL
-$2.58
Record
65%
130517-70309 (200826)
Invested
$10.36
Value
$5.56
PnL
-$4.8
Record
66%
130853-67700 (198553)
Invested
$4.72
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$2.22
Record
61%
98777-62719 (161496)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.