Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

XRP Up or Down - November 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (71%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $94 held · ended Nov 7

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

Total Value

$94.4

Combined PnL

-$2.29

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$55.14

Total Shares62

Combined PnL+$2.76

Down5 traders

Total Value$39.26

Total Shares82

Combined PnL-$5.05

Up — 29%Down — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 92¢	$36.82	$33.2	-$3.62	65% 130321-70183 (200504)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 56.7¢	$28.35	$25	-$3.35	52% 12342-11390 (23732)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 70.3¢	$15.56	$21.94	+$6.38	55% 51661-42834 (94495)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$4.77	$5	+$0.23	61% 46115-29290 (75405)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 29.6¢	$2.21	$3.73	+$1.53	61% 98632-62636 (161268)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 58.7¢	$4.09	$3.49	-$0.61	56% 60575-47128 (107703)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 59.4¢	$4.89	$2.04	-$2.84	56% 77437-59824 (137261)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$36.82

Value

$33.2

PnL

-$3.62

Record

65%

130321-70183 (200504)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.35

Value

$25

PnL

-$3.35

Record

52%

12342-11390 (23732)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$15.56

Value

$21.94

PnL

+$6.38

Record

55%

51661-42834 (94495)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.77

Value

PnL

+$0.23

Record

61%

46115-29290 (75405)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.21

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$1.53

Record

61%

98632-62636 (161268)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.09

Value

$3.49

PnL

-$0.61

Record

56%

60575-47128 (107703)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.89

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$2.84

Record

56%

77437-59824 (137261)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.