Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
XRP Up or Down - November 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 0.5¢ · $31 held · ended Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Down
5
Down 100%
$31.27
$23.82
Research grade
AvoidDown at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 18.1¢ | $3.75 | $10.34 | +$6.6 | 65% 130321-70183 (200504) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 1.1¢ | $0.18 | $8.5 | +$8.32 | 61% 46115-29290 (75405) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 20.1¢ | $2.01 | $5 | +$2.99 | 58% 63329-46540 (109869) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 14.8¢ | $1.46 | $4.93 | +$3.47 | 61% 98632-62636 (161268) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1.1¢ | $0.05 | $2.5 | +$2.45 | 65% 114604-61650 (176254) |
Invested
$3.75
Value
$10.34
PnL
+$6.6
Record
65%
130321-70183 (200504)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.18
Value
$8.5
PnL
+$8.32
Record
61%
46115-29290 (75405)
Invested
$2.01
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.99
Record
58%
63329-46540 (109869)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$4.93
PnL
+$3.47
Record
61%
98632-62636 (161268)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$2.45
Record
65%
114604-61650 (176254)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.