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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Down 78%

Total Value

$9.86

Combined PnL

-$671.93

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares705

Combined PnL-$675.28

Up2 traders

Total Value$9.86

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$3.35

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50.8¢	$528.47	—	-$497.84	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 65.6¢	$82.27	—	-$82.27	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 65¢	$87.06	—	-$87.06	57% 4084-3020 (7104)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$4.81	$4.86	+$0.05	98% 4700-98 (4798)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$3.01	—	-$3.01	43% 2221-2992 (5213)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 80¢	$4	—	-$4	70% 1911-827 (2738)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 34¢	$1.7	$5	+$3.3	48% 2616-2848 (5464)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 14¢	$1.05	—	-$1.05	50% 2955-2954 (5909)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	36% 1532-2761 (4293)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$528.47

Value

—

PnL

-$497.84

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$82.27

Value

—

PnL

-$82.27

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$87.06

Value

—

PnL

-$87.06

Record

57%

4084-3020 (7104)

Invested

$4.81

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$0.05

Record

98%

4700-98 (4798)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$3.01

Value

—

PnL

-$3.01

Record

43%

2221-2992 (5213)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$4

Value

—

PnL

-$4

Record

70%

1911-827 (2738)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$1.7

Value

$5

PnL

+$3.3

Record

48%

2616-2848 (5464)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

—

PnL

-$1.05

Record

50%

2955-2954 (5909)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

36%

1532-2761 (4293)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 9 top traders (78%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe2d40c82...8593f3

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794784500

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $4.86

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $0

BoneOhio

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $5

dvasdkasodk

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $0

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