Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (58%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Up (60%) · Up at 42¢ · $717 held · ends Nov 15

Up42¢Down58¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$717.01

Combined PnL

$13.09

Research grade

NeutralUp at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Down 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up42%

Down58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$103.35

Total Shares129

Combined PnL-$5.66

Up6 traders

Total Value$108.47

Total Shares263

Combined PnL+$18.75

Down — 40%Up — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51.1¢	$525.6	$505.19	-$8.09	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$258.18	$292.86	+$35.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$252.17	$212.33	-$43.13
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 77.4¢	$66.35	$58.66	-$7.68	49% 2590-2661 (5251)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 28.9¢	$36.09	$52.5	+$16.41	58% 4049-2979 (7028)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 30.9¢	$39.06	$37.88	-$1.18	49% 3718-3826 (7544)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$23.92	$26.79	+$2.87	60% 4351-2951 (7302)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 62¢	$16.05	$15	-$1.05	47% 2520-2793 (5313)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 27.5¢	$6.97	$8.48	+$1.51	43% 2210-2957 (5167)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 35.6¢	$6.95	$4.67	+$1.47	50% 2938-2929 (5867)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100	Downavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.9	+$0.2	52% 119-111 (230)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$2.1	$2.84	+$0.73	36% 1528-2731 (4259)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.1	-$0.2	48% 2593-2832 (5425)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$525.6

Value

$505.19

PnL

-$8.09

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

Both legs:

Down$258.1851.1¢+$35.04

Up$252.1749.9¢-$43.13

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$66.35

Value

$58.66

PnL

-$7.68

Record

49%

2590-2661 (5251)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$36.09

Value

$52.5

PnL

+$16.41

Record

58%

4049-2979 (7028)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$39.06

Value

$37.88

PnL

-$1.18

Record

49%

3718-3826 (7544)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$23.92

Value

$26.79

PnL

+$2.87

Record

60%

4351-2951 (7302)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$16.05

Value

$15

PnL

-$1.05

Record

47%

2520-2793 (5313)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$6.97

Value

$8.48

PnL

+$1.51

Record

43%

2210-2957 (5167)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$6.95

Value

$4.67

PnL

+$1.47

Record

50%

2938-2929 (5867)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100

Down

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

119-111 (230)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.84

PnL

+$0.73

Record

36%

1528-2731 (4259)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

48%

2593-2832 (5425)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 42%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Down 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.