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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 60%

Total Value

$458.05

Combined PnL

-$792.47

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 10 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,113

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Down4 traders

Total Value$458.05

Total Shares458

Combined PnL+$240.28

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50.5¢	$509.27	—	-$498.52	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 12.5¢	$28.72	$229.88	+$201.16	43% 2210-2957 (5167)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 76¢	$241.64	—	-$234.14	49% 3718-3826 (7544)
BoneOhio	Downavg 99¢	$170.84	$172.57	+$1.73	70% 1893-822 (2715)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 89.5¢	$44.75	—	-$44.75	49% 2590-2661 (5251)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 32.2¢	$7.4	$22.99	+$15.59	50% 2938-2929 (5867)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 33.1¢	$10.81	$32.61	+$21.8	50% 1799-1825 (3624)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 61¢	$9.55	—	-$6.5	60% 4351-2951 (7302)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 65¢	$5	—	-$5	36% 1528-2731 (4259)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 89¢	$243.84	—	-$243.84	58% 4049-2979 (7028)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$509.27

Value

—

PnL

-$498.52

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$28.72

Value

$229.88

PnL

+$201.16

Record

43%

2210-2957 (5167)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$241.64

Value

—

PnL

-$234.14

Record

49%

3718-3826 (7544)

Invested

$170.84

Value

$172.57

PnL

+$1.73

Record

70%

1893-822 (2715)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$44.75

Value

—

PnL

-$44.75

Record

49%

2590-2661 (5251)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

$22.99

PnL

+$15.59

Record

50%

2938-2929 (5867)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$10.81

Value

$32.61

PnL

+$21.8

Record

50%

1799-1825 (3624)

Invested

$9.55

Value

—

PnL

-$6.5

Record

60%

4351-2951 (7302)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$5

Value

—

PnL

-$5

Record

36%

1528-2731 (4259)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$243.84

Value

—

PnL

-$243.84

Record

58%

4049-2979 (7028)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 10 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xea142b51...248cfe

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794779100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $229.88

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

BoneOhio

Down — $172.57

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Down — $22.99

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $32.61

aaa221

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

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