Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 55%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$61.65
Smart Money Signal
6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $804.92 | $671.2 | -$132.47 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $538.3 | $494.9 | -$1.31 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.5¢ | $249.68 | $494.9 | +$248.72 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.6¢ | $253.03 | — | -$250.02 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e | Downavg 44.8¢ | $168.29 | $215.69 | +$93.92 | 58% 4041-2969 (7010) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $99 | $100 | +$1 | 98% 4630-97 (4727) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 29.8¢ | $34.13 | — | -$34.13 | 49% 2572-2644 (5216) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 50.8¢ | $14.55 | $28.66 | +$14.11 | 36% 1518-2714 (4232) |
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100 | Downavg 39.8¢ | $7.95 | $20 | +$12.05 | 52% 118-110 (228) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 24.2¢ | $6.34 | — | -$6.34 | 50% 1792-1817 (3609) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 42.7¢ | $6.4 | — | -$6.4 | 48% 2606-2865 (5471) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 44% 2472-3195 (5667) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | $1.15 | — | -$1.15 | 50% 2915-2911 (5826) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $1.45 | $1.63 | +$0.18 | 60% 4328-2942 (7270) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $0 | — | -$0 | 47% 2506-2778 (5284) |
Invested
$804.92
Value
$671.2
PnL
-$132.47
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
Invested
$538.3
Value
$494.9
PnL
-$1.31
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Both legs:
Invested
$168.29
Value
$215.69
PnL
+$93.92
Record
58%
4041-2969 (7010)
Invested
$99
Value
$100
PnL
+$1
Record
98%
4630-97 (4727)
Invested
$34.13
Value
—
PnL
-$34.13
Record
49%
2572-2644 (5216)
Invested
$14.55
Value
$28.66
PnL
+$14.11
Record
36%
1518-2714 (4232)
Invested
$7.95
Value
$20
PnL
+$12.05
Record
52%
118-110 (228)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$6.34
Value
—
PnL
-$6.34
Record
50%
1792-1817 (3609)
Invested
$6.4
Value
—
PnL
-$6.4
Record
48%
2606-2865 (5471)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
44%
2472-3195 (5667)
Invested
$1.15
Value
—
PnL
-$1.15
Record
50%
2915-2911 (5826)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.63
PnL
+$0.18
Record
60%
4328-2942 (7270)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
2506-2778 (5284)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $671.2
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $215.69
hoodquant
Down — $100
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
antsaslyku
Down — $28.66
0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819
Down — $20
cryingbabydicer87
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0