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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 54% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$713.16

Combined PnL

-$55.29

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$229.95

Total Shares230

Combined PnL+$68.1

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares217

Combined PnL-$123.39

Down — 46%Up — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.4¢	$514.88	$483.21	-$4.24	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.4¢	$254.22	—	-$254.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$236.69	$483.21	+$249.92
cryingbabydicer87	Downavg 58.4¢	$82.11	$133.05	+$50.94	50% 1774-1809 (3583)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 45.6¢	$99.56	—	-$99.56	49% 3651-3756 (7407)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 78¢	$23.4	$30	+$6.6	52% 1704-1576 (3280)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 78¢	$23.39	$29.99	+$6.6	51% 4946-4701 (9647)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 78¢	$21.27	$27.27	+$6	51% 1687-1592 (3279)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 66¢	$9.63	$7.57	-$2.06	36% 1504-2673 (4177)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 40.5¢	$4.86	—	-$4.86	42% 2132-2886 (5018)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 30.1¢	$49.96	—	-$13.49	58% 4023-2943 (6966)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 5.1¢	$1.1	—	-$1.1	50% 2877-2870 (5747)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$0.91	—	-$0.91	49% 2537-2616 (5153)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99¢	$2.05	$2.07	+$0.02	53% 1627-1417 (3044)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 32¢	$1.92	—	-$1.92	48% 2576-2827 (5403)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$1.55	—	-$1.55	47% 2471-2739 (5210)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$514.88

Value

$483.21

PnL

-$4.24

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

Both legs:

Up$254.2249.4¢-$254.16

Down$236.6949¢+$249.92

cryingbabydicer87

Invested

$82.11

Value

$133.05

PnL

+$50.94

Record

50%

1774-1809 (3583)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$99.56

Value

—

PnL

-$99.56

Record

49%

3651-3756 (7407)

Invested

$23.4

Value

$30

PnL

+$6.6

Record

52%

1704-1576 (3280)

Invested

$23.39

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$6.6

Record

51%

4946-4701 (9647)

Invested

$21.27

Value

$27.27

PnL

+$6

Record

51%

1687-1592 (3279)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$9.63

Value

$7.57

PnL

-$2.06

Record

36%

1504-2673 (4177)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$4.86

Value

—

PnL

-$4.86

Record

42%

2132-2886 (5018)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$49.96

Value

—

PnL

-$13.49

Record

58%

4023-2943 (6966)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

—

PnL

-$1.1

Record

50%

2877-2870 (5747)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$0.91

Value

—

PnL

-$0.91

Record

49%

2537-2616 (5153)

Invested

$2.05

Value

$2.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

1627-1417 (3044)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$1.92

Value

—

PnL

-$1.92

Record

48%

2576-2827 (5403)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.55

Value

—

PnL

-$1.55

Record

47%

2471-2739 (5210)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa09b564b...190beb

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794770100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $133.05

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

mo-money

Down — $30

bosona

Down — $29.99

almach

Down — $27.27

antsaslyku

Down — $7.57

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

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