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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Up 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$546.2

Combined PnL

-$21.55

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares86

Combined PnL-$42.04

Down3 traders

Total Value$46.52

Total Shares47

Combined PnL+$20.49

Up — 57%Down — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$534.2	$499.67	-$13.28	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$252.39	$499.67	+$247.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$256.46	—	-$260.3
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 44.8¢	$35.15	—	-$35.15	58% 4006-2920 (6926)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 30.7¢	$18.84	$31	+$12.16	49% 3629-3730 (7359)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 47¢	$4.79	$10.19	+$5.4	60% 4239-2880 (7119)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 28¢	$3.36	—	-$3.36	42% 2086-2846 (4932)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 45¢	$2.4	$5.33	+$2.93	50% 2835-2829 (5664)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 21.8¢	$3.48	—	-$3.48	49% 1742-1781 (3523)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	36% 1488-2638 (4126)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$534.2

Value

$499.67

PnL

-$13.28

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

Both legs:

Down$252.3950.5¢+$247.02

Up$256.4650.3¢-$260.3

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$35.15

Value

—

PnL

-$35.15

Record

58%

4006-2920 (6926)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$18.84

Value

$31

PnL

+$12.16

Record

49%

3629-3730 (7359)

Invested

$4.79

Value

$10.19

PnL

+$5.4

Record

60%

4239-2880 (7119)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$3.36

Value

—

PnL

-$3.36

Record

42%

2086-2846 (4932)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$2.93

Record

50%

2835-2829 (5664)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$3.48

Value

—

PnL

-$3.48

Record

49%

1742-1781 (3523)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

36%

1488-2638 (4126)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9d5ab0de...3de0ac

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794762000

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $31

aaa221

Down — $10.19

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Down — $5.33

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

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