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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 70%

Total Value

$200

Combined PnL

-$858.06

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 10 top traders (70%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,088
Combined PnL-$960.98
Down3 traders
Total Value$200
Total Shares200
Combined PnL+$102.93
Up — 70%Down — 30%
BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Up

Invested

$522.88

Value

—

PnL

-$502.07

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down

Invested

$72.19

Value

$174

PnL

+$101.81

Record

58%

4006-2920 (6926)

UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$38.25

Value

—

PnL

-$38.25

Record

49%

2495-2563 (5058)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR
Up

Invested

$394.49

Value

—

PnL

-$394.49

Record

42%

2086-2846 (4932)

0X
0x50f7<$100
Down

Invested

$14.98

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

1595-1405 (3000)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$9.9

Value

$11

PnL

+$1.1

Record

60%

4239-2880 (7119)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$4.17

Value

—

PnL

-$4.17

Record

44%

2407-3121 (5528)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$20.85

Value

—

PnL

-$20.85

Record

49%

1742-1781 (3523)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

36%

1488-2638 (4126)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.1

Value

—

PnL

-$1.1

Record

48%

2518-2730 (5248)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xd6e3f959...cdaa31
Slug
xrp-updown-15m-1794760200

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Up — $0

-$502.07
0X

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $174

+$101.81
UN

uninformedfloww

CTR

Up — $0

-$38.25
0X

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

CTR

Up — $0

-$394.49
0X

0x50f7

Down — $15

+$0.02
AA

aaa221

Down — $11

+$1.1

G-Penis-Monster

CTR

Up — $0

-$4.17

cryingbabydicer87

CTR

Up — $0

-$20.85
AN

antsaslyku

CTR

Up — $0

-$0.05
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

CTR

Up — $0

-$1.1
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