Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 60%

Total Value

$70.95

Combined PnL

-$492.15

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares599

Combined PnL-$503.44

Up4 traders

Total Value$70.95

Total Shares71

Combined PnL+$11.29

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 50¢	$500	—	-$491.9	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Upavg 87.9¢	$47.47	$54	+$6.53	58% 3986-2906 (6892)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 8.8¢	$5.38	—	-$5.38	49% 1730-1766 (3496)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 83.2¢	$4.95	$5.95	+$1	36% 1471-2611 (4082)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 75¢	$4.24	$5	+$0.76	49% 3600-3701 (7301)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 15¢	$3.75	—	-$3.75	49% 2456-2514 (4970)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 50¢	$3	$6	+$3	42% 2048-2798 (4846)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 29¢	$0.41	—	-$0.41	60% 4192-2848 (7040)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 20¢	$1	—	-$1	44% 2374-3081 (5455)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 17¢	$1	—	-$1	50% 2795-2794 (5589)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$491.9

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$47.47

Value

$54

PnL

+$6.53

Record

58%

3986-2906 (6892)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$5.38

Value

—

PnL

-$5.38

Record

49%

1730-1766 (3496)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5.95

PnL

+$1

Record

36%

1471-2611 (4082)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$4.24

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.76

Record

49%

3600-3701 (7301)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

—

PnL

-$3.75

Record

49%

2456-2514 (4970)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$3

Value

$6

PnL

+$3

Record

42%

2048-2798 (4846)

Invested

$0.41

Value

—

PnL

-$0.41

Record

60%

4192-2848 (7040)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$1

Value

—

PnL

-$1

Record

44%

2374-3081 (5455)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1

Value

—

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

2795-2794 (5589)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x7c61445f...16d5f6

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794755700

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $54

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $5.95

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $5

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $6

aaa221

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

dvasdkasodk

Down — $0

Trade on Polymarket