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DownUpDown
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100DownUpDownDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$586.87
Combined PnL
$0.49
Smart Money Signal
Down
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$90.08
Total Shares90
Combined PnL+$14.78
Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares154
Combined PnL-$14.29
Up — 33%Down — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.3¢ | $503.78 | $496.79 | -$3.66 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.3¢ | $248.85 | — | -$252.25 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $248.39 | $496.79 | +$248.59 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Upavg 84.3¢ | $74.22 | $88 | +$13.78 | 58% 3986-2906 (6892) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $3.75 | — | -$3.75 | 49% 2456-2514 (4970) |
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Downavg 13.1¢ | $8.66 | — | -$8.66 | 49% 1730-1766 (3496) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $1.08 | $2.08 | +$1 | 60% 4192-2848 (7040) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.5¢ | $0.8 | — | -$0.8 | 42% 2048-2798 (4846) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 3.6¢ | $1.08 | — | -$1.08 | 50% 2795-2794 (5589) |
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$503.78
Value
$496.79
PnL
-$3.66
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Both legs:
Down$248.8549.3¢-$252.25
Up$248.3950¢+$248.59
0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100Invested
$74.22
Value
$88
PnL
+$13.78
Record
58%
3986-2906 (6892)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$3.75
Value
—
PnL
-$3.75
Record
49%
2456-2514 (4970)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$8.66
Value
—
PnL
-$8.66
Record
49%
1730-1766 (3496)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
$2.08
PnL
+$1
Record
60%
4192-2848 (7040)
0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100Invested
$0.8
Value
—
PnL
-$0.8
Record
42%
2048-2798 (4846)
DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100Invested
$1.08
Value
—
PnL
-$1.08
Record
50%
2795-2794 (5589)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf58a9591...010410
Slug
xrp-updown-15m-1794753900