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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

10

Down 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$769.87

Combined PnL

-$24.15

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$203.16

Total Shares203

Combined PnL+$24.11

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares299

Combined PnL-$48.25

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$534.35	$502.06	+$1.72	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$248.63	$502.06	+$252.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$249.16	—	-$250.88
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$148.96	$152	+$3.04	98% 4362-90 (4452)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 44.8¢	$47.69	$64.66	+$16.97	36% 1455-2580 (4035)
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.3¢	$18.7	—	-$18.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.8¢	$28.99	$64.66	+$35.67
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 36.5¢	$8.78	$15	+$6.3	48% 2474-2726 (5200)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 95¢	$12.66	$12.25	-$0.41	50% 2760-2748 (5508)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 69¢	$13.8	—	-$13.8	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100	Downavg 29¢	$2.9	$10	+$7.1	51% 106-102 (208)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 38.9¢	$4.28	$11	+$6.72	42% 2015-2741 (4756)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 38¢	$1.55	$2.9	+$1.35	50% 1714-1745 (3459)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 15.2¢	$90.48	—	-$16.48	58% 3966-2891 (6857)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$9	—	-$9	44% 2349-3036 (5385)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 69¢	$8.97	—	-$8.97	49% 2434-2485 (4919)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$534.35

Value

$502.06

PnL

+$1.72

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

Both legs:

Down$248.6349.5¢+$252.6

Up$249.1650.1¢-$250.88

Invested

$148.96

Value

$152

PnL

+$3.04

Record

98%

4362-90 (4452)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$47.69

Value

$64.66

PnL

+$16.97

Record

36%

1455-2580 (4035)

Both legs:

Up$18.728.3¢-$18.7

Down$28.9944.8¢+$35.67

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$8.78

Value

$15

PnL

+$6.3

Record

48%

2474-2726 (5200)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$12.66

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$0.41

Record

50%

2760-2748 (5508)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$13.8

Value

—

PnL

-$13.8

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$10

PnL

+$7.1

Record

51%

106-102 (208)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$4.28

Value

$11

PnL

+$6.72

Record

42%

2015-2741 (4756)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$1.55

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$1.35

Record

50%

1714-1745 (3459)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$90.48

Value

—

PnL

-$16.48

Record

58%

3966-2891 (6857)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$9

Value

—

PnL

-$9

Record

44%

2349-3036 (5385)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$8.97

Value

—

PnL

-$8.97

Record

49%

2434-2485 (4919)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7450f356...e1c0c3

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794746700

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $152

antsaslyku

Arbitrage — excluded

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $15

dvasdkasodk

Down — $12.25

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $10

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $11

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $2.9

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

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