Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
9
Down 33%
2 arb excluded
$1.1K
$273.29
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.8Β’ | $523.74 | $491.81 | -$0.54 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 49.7Β’ | $244.55 | $491.81 | +$252.03 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 49.8Β’ | $249.89 | β | -$252.57 | |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 32.5Β’ | $144.81 | $445.24 | +$300.43 | 42% 2015-2741 (4756) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 62.8Β’ | $183.99 | $151.78 | -$32.21 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 62.8Β’ | $95.31 | $151.78 | +$56.48 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 42.8Β’ | $88.68 | β | -$88.68 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.7Β’ | $73.97 | β | -$19.99 | 58% 3966-2891 (6857) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 58.9Β’ | $46.4 | $34.34 | -$3.55 | 60% 4136-2815 (6951) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 60.9Β’ | $13.34 | $13.69 | +$3.12 | 36% 1455-2580 (4035) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 17Β’ | $1 | β | -$1 | 50% 2760-2748 (5508) |
![]() ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 36Β’ | $1.8 | β | -$1.8 | 48% 2373-2615 (4988) |
![]() cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 18Β’ | $0.9 | β | -$0.9 | 50% 1714-1745 (3459) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 42Β’ | $1.67 | β | -$1.67 | 44% 2349-3036 (5385) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 27Β’ | $1.35 | β | -$1.35 | 48% 2455-2651 (5106) |
Invested
$523.74
Value
$491.81
PnL
-$0.54
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Both legs:
Invested
$144.81
Value
$445.24
PnL
+$300.43
Record
42%
2015-2741 (4756)
Invested
$183.99
Value
$151.78
PnL
-$32.21
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
Both legs:
Invested
$73.97
Value
β
PnL
-$19.99
Record
58%
3966-2891 (6857)
Invested
$46.4
Value
$34.34
PnL
-$3.55
Record
60%
4136-2815 (6951)
Invested
$13.34
Value
$13.69
PnL
+$3.12
Record
36%
1455-2580 (4035)
Invested
$1
Value
β
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
2760-2748 (5508)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$1.8
Value
β
PnL
-$1.8
Record
48%
2373-2615 (4988)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$0.9
Value
β
PnL
-$0.9
Record
50%
1714-1745 (3459)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.67
Value
β
PnL
-$1.67
Record
44%
2349-3036 (5385)
Invested
$1.35
Value
β
PnL
-$1.35
Record
48%
2455-2651 (5106)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down β $445.24
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage β excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
CTRUp β $0
aaa221
Down β $34.34
antsaslyku
Down β $13.69
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp β $0

ohioism
CTRUp β $0

cryingbabydicer87
CTRUp β $0

G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp β $0