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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Down 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$401.02

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,248

Combined PnL+$893.95

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares699

Combined PnL-$492.92

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Upavg 26.6¢	$321.64	$1.2K	+$889.57	42% 1920-2608 (4528)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$514.28	$491	-$4.63	54% 3939-3307 (7246)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$244.42	$491	+$247.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$252.89	—	-$251.8
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Downavg 54.9¢	$277.06	—	-$277.06	50% 3476-3482 (6958)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 52.5¢	$20.79	$26.92	+$8.08	60% 4018-2726 (6744)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 47.9¢	$16.75	—	-$16.75	50% 1672-1702 (3374)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100	Downavg 42.8¢	$10.7	—	-$10.7	51% 101-98 (199)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 98¢	$13.7	$10	-$3.7	50% 2671-2654 (5325)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$4.61	—	-$4.61	36% 1432-2527 (3959)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 41¢	$2.63	—	-$2.63	44% 2289-2937 (5226)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Downavg 53¢	$258.17	—	-$181.17	58% 3913-2854 (6767)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$321.64

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$889.57

Record

42%

1920-2608 (4528)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$514.28

Value

$491

PnL

-$4.63

Record

54%

3939-3307 (7246)

Both legs:

Up$244.4249.8¢+$247.17

Down$252.8950.1¢-$251.8

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$277.06

Value

—

PnL

-$277.06

Record

50%

3476-3482 (6958)

Invested

$20.79

Value

$26.92

PnL

+$8.08

Record

60%

4018-2726 (6744)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$16.75

Value

—

PnL

-$16.75

Record

50%

1672-1702 (3374)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819CTR<$100

Invested

$10.7

Value

—

PnL

-$10.7

Record

51%

101-98 (199)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$13.7

Value

$10

PnL

-$3.7

Record

50%

2671-2654 (5325)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$4.61

Value

—

PnL

-$4.61

Record

36%

1432-2527 (3959)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$2.63

Value

—

PnL

-$2.63

Record

44%

2289-2937 (5226)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$258.17

Value

—

PnL

-$181.17

Record

58%

3913-2854 (6767)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x1368d6eb...477fd3

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794728700

Traders in this Market

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $1.2K

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

aaa221

Up — $26.92

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $10

antsaslyku

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $0

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