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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Up 86%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$583.98

Combined PnL

-$48.25

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares144

Combined PnL-$55.3

Down1 trader

Total Value$15

Total Shares15

Combined PnL+$7.05

Up — 86%Down — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$516.46	$500.83	-$1.91	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$251.62	$500.83	+$247.59
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$249.2	—	-$249.5
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 41.4¢	$113.61	$68.15	-$45.46	50% 3448-3455 (6903)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.9¢	$29.91	$68.15	+$38.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.4¢	$83.7	—	-$83.7
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 41.6¢	$34.09	—	-$34.09	58% 3901-2845 (6746)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 34.8¢	$13.12	—	-$13.12	36% 1429-2521 (3950)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100	Downavg 53¢	$7.95	$15	+$7.05	51% 100-98 (198)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$4.92	—	-$4.92	43% 1909-2581 (4490)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$0.82	—	-$0.82	44% 2281-2921 (5202)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 9.4¢	$1.05	—	-$1.05	50% 1667-1698 (3365)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 23¢	$1.3	—	-$1.3	50% 2651-2645 (5296)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$516.46

Value

$500.83

PnL

-$1.91

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

Both legs:

Down$251.6250.2¢+$247.59

Up$249.249.8¢-$249.5

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$113.61

Value

$68.15

PnL

-$45.46

Record

50%

3448-3455 (6903)

Both legs:

Down$29.9143.9¢+$38.24

Up$83.741.4¢-$83.7

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$34.09

Value

—

PnL

-$34.09

Record

58%

3901-2845 (6746)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$13.12

Value

—

PnL

-$13.12

Record

36%

1429-2521 (3950)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100

Invested

$7.95

Value

$15

PnL

+$7.05

Record

51%

100-98 (198)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$4.92

Value

—

PnL

-$4.92

Record

43%

1909-2581 (4490)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$0.82

Value

—

PnL

-$0.82

Record

44%

2281-2921 (5202)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

—

PnL

-$1.05

Record

50%

1667-1698 (3365)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.3

Value

—

PnL

-$1.3

Record

50%

2651-2645 (5296)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 7 top traders (86%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb7fb81ae...cc230f

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794726900

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $15

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

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