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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

5

Up 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$594

Combined PnL

$14.05

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$49

Total Shares49

Combined PnL+$14.68

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares6

Combined PnL-$0.63

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$520.14	$500	+$0.56	54% 3914-3284 (7198)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$250.29	$500	+$247.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$243.58	—	-$247.34
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 32.9¢	$69.46	$45	-$24.46	50% 3448-3455 (6903)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.6¢	$30.85	$45	+$14.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.9¢	$38.61	—	-$38.61
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$36.97	$32	+$5.33	58% 3901-2845 (6746)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 22.5¢	$2.7	$12	+$9.3	43% 1909-2581 (4490)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	98% 4160-87 (4247)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	36% 1429-2521 (3950)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 69¢	$0.58	—	-$0.58	60% 3996-2713 (6709)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$520.14

Value

$500

PnL

+$0.56

Record

54%

3914-3284 (7198)

Both legs:

Up$250.2950.1¢+$247.9

Down$243.5848.9¢-$247.34

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$69.46

Value

$45

PnL

-$24.46

Record

50%

3448-3455 (6903)

Both legs:

Up$30.8568.6¢+$14.15

Down$38.6132.9¢-$38.61

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$36.97

Value

$32

PnL

+$5.33

Record

58%

3901-2845 (6746)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$12

PnL

+$9.3

Record

43%

1909-2581 (4490)

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

98%

4160-87 (4247)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

36%

1429-2521 (3950)

Invested

$0.58

Value

—

PnL

-$0.58

Record

60%

3996-2713 (6709)

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdc3fce28...eb60ec

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794724200

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $32

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $12

hoodquant

Up — $5

antsaslyku

Down — $0

aaa221

Down — $0

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