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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

4

Up 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$645.44

Combined PnL

-$192.67

Smart Money Signal

Up

1 of 4 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up1 trader

Total Value$0

Total Shares526

Combined PnL-$227.72

Down3 traders

Total Value$98.84

Total Shares99

Combined PnL+$35.05

Up — 25%Down — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.8¢	$514.55	$500	+$8.09	54% 3871-3256 (7127)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.8¢	$253.81	$500	+$254.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.8¢	$245.61	—	-$246.41
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 37.4¢	$228.58	—	-$227.72	43% 1894-2540 (4434)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$40.79	$46.6	+$5.81	50% 3424-3398 (6822)
└ Up leg	Upavg 1.3¢	$0.95	—	-$0.95
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.5¢	$39.84	$46.6	+$6.76
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 60.2¢	$32.26	$52.84	+$20.58	60% 3969-2697 (6666)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 67.6¢	$27.73	$41	+$13.27	58% 3890-2826 (6716)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 76¢	$3.8	$5	+$1.2	50% 1662-1690 (3352)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$514.55

Value

$500

PnL

+$8.09

Record

54%

3871-3256 (7127)

Both legs:

Down$253.8150.8¢+$254.5

Up$245.6149.8¢-$246.41

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$228.58

Value

—

PnL

-$227.72

Record

43%

1894-2540 (4434)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$40.79

Value

$46.6

PnL

+$5.81

Record

50%

3424-3398 (6822)

Both legs:

Up$0.951.3¢-$0.95

Down$39.8485.5¢+$6.76

Invested

$32.26

Value

$52.84

PnL

+$20.58

Record

60%

3969-2697 (6666)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$27.73

Value

$41

PnL

+$13.27

Record

58%

3890-2826 (6716)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.2

Record

50%

1662-1690 (3352)

Smart Money Signal

Up

1 of 4 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8e129b35...943ea8

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794722400

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

aaa221

Down — $52.84

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $41

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $5

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