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Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Up 40%
Total Value
$57.8
Combined PnL
-$482.61
Smart Money Signal
Up
2 of 5 top traders (40%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares562
Combined PnL-$512.66
Down3 traders
Total Value$57.8
Total Shares58
Combined PnL+$30.05
Up — 40%Down — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50.3¢ | $512.8 | — | -$502.8 | 54% 3849-3219 (7068) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Downavg 46.2¢ | $17.09 | $37 | +$19.91 | 58% 3865-2801 (6666) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $6.16 | $15.8 | +$9.64 | 60% 3949-2687 (6636) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $5 | +$0.5 | 50% 2598-2611 (5209) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 15.8¢ | $9.86 | — | -$9.86 | 50% 3397-3361 (6758) |
BY
ByteBadger92CTRInvested
$512.8
Value
—
PnL
-$502.8
Record
54%
3849-3219 (7068)
0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100Invested
$17.09
Value
$37
PnL
+$19.91
Record
58%
3865-2801 (6666)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$6.16
Value
$15.8
PnL
+$9.64
Record
60%
3949-2687 (6636)
DV
dvasdkasodk<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
2598-2611 (5209)
0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100Invested
$9.86
Value
—
PnL
-$9.86
Record
50%
3397-3361 (6758)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x0279f2ea...da171a
Slug
xrp-updown-15m-1794719700