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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

8

Down 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$946.83

Combined PnL

$192.13

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$422.83

Total Shares423

Combined PnL+$339.41

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares187

Combined PnL-$147.28

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$513.61	$488.62	+$5.41	54% 3849-3219 (7068)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.7¢	$237.86	$488.62	+$251.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.4¢	$249.48	—	-$246.57
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 19.2¢	$73.88	$385	+$311.12	43% 1879-2519 (4398)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 52.2¢	$123.57	—	-$117.42	50% 3397-3361 (6758)
cryingbabydicer87ARB<$100	Upavg 29.2¢	$27.61	$35.38	+$7.77	50% 1655-1677 (3332)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.2¢	$19.11	—	-$19.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 24¢	$8.5	$35.38	+$26.88
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 30¢	$5.38	$17.75	+$12.37	36% 1413-2501 (3914)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 63¢	$15.75	—	-$15.75	44% 2246-2882 (5128)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 23¢	$3.45	$15	+$11.55	47% 2348-2603 (4951)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 36¢	$3.4	—	-$3.4	50% 2598-2611 (5209)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 14¢	$0.71	$5.08	+$4.37	60% 3949-2687 (6636)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 74.9¢	$47.71	—	-$10.71	58% 3865-2801 (6666)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$513.61

Value

$488.62

PnL

+$5.41

Record

54%

3849-3219 (7068)

Both legs:

Down$237.8648.7¢+$251.99

Up$249.4850.4¢-$246.57

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Invested

$73.88

Value

$385

PnL

+$311.12

Record

43%

1879-2519 (4398)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$123.57

Value

—

PnL

-$117.42

Record

50%

3397-3361 (6758)

cryingbabydicer87ARB<$100

Invested

$27.61

Value

$35.38

PnL

+$7.77

Record

50%

1655-1677 (3332)

Both legs:

Up$19.1129.2¢-$19.11

Down$8.524¢+$26.88

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$5.38

Value

$17.75

PnL

+$12.37

Record

36%

1413-2501 (3914)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$15.75

Value

—

PnL

-$15.75

Record

44%

2246-2882 (5128)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$3.45

Value

$15

PnL

+$11.55

Record

47%

2348-2603 (4951)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

—

PnL

-$3.4

Record

50%

2598-2611 (5209)

Invested

$0.71

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$4.37

Record

60%

3949-2687 (6636)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$47.71

Value

—

PnL

-$10.71

Record

58%

3865-2801 (6666)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xcbff1f91...ece84e

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794717900

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $385

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Arbitrage — excluded

antsaslyku

Down — $17.75

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $15

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

aaa221

Down — $5.08

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

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