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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Down 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$624.41

Combined PnL

-$524.49

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares646

Combined PnL-$555.84

Up4 traders

Total Value$196.14

Total Shares196

Combined PnL+$31.34

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.6¢	$528.3	—	-$499.12	54% 3808-3199 (7007)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 22.7¢	$161.18	$428.27	+$267.09	50% 3372-3320 (6692)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.1¢	$63.98	—	-$63.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.7¢	$97.2	$428.27	+$331.07
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 98.3¢	$106.98	$108.81	+$1.83	52% 1462-1344 (2806)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 28.9¢	$30.6	—	-$30.6	43% 1865-2503 (4368)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$32.87	$39.33	+$6.46	50% 2579-2590 (5169)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Upavg 56.7¢	$24.38	$43	+$18.62	58% 3808-2767 (6575)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 9¢	$0.57	$5	+$4.43	50% 1651-1664 (3315)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 85¢	$21.25	—	-$21.25	47% 2226-2478 (4704)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 80¢	$4.87	—	-$4.87	36% 1409-2482 (3891)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$528.3

Value

—

PnL

-$499.12

Record

54%

3808-3199 (7007)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$161.18

Value

$428.27

PnL

+$267.09

Record

50%

3372-3320 (6692)

Both legs:

Down$63.9842.1¢-$63.98

Up$97.222.7¢+$331.07

Invested

$106.98

Value

$108.81

PnL

+$1.83

Record

52%

1462-1344 (2806)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$30.6

Value

—

PnL

-$30.6

Record

43%

1865-2503 (4368)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$32.87

Value

$39.33

PnL

+$6.46

Record

50%

2579-2590 (5169)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$24.38

Value

$43

PnL

+$18.62

Record

58%

3808-2767 (6575)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$0.57

Value

$5

PnL

+$4.43

Record

50%

1651-1664 (3315)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$21.25

Value

—

PnL

-$21.25

Record

47%

2226-2478 (4704)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$4.87

Value

—

PnL

-$4.87

Record

36%

1409-2482 (3891)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xacb569d9...758843

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794715200

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

0x50f7

Up — $108.81

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $0

dvasdkasodk

Up — $39.33

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $43

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $5

ohioism

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $0

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