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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

9

Down 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$845.57

Combined PnL

-$57.67

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down3 traders

Total Value$354

Total Shares354

Combined PnL+$28.43

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares143

Combined PnL-$86.1

Down — 33%Up — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$502.96	$491.57	-$6.7	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$252.4	—	-$252.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245.56	$491.57	+$245.7
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$277.2	$280	+$2.8	98% 3857-81 (3938)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 58.9¢	$57.41	$69	+$23.63	58% 3692-2676 (6368)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 30.9¢	$30.21	—	-$30.21	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	$17.5	—	-$17.5	49% 2317-2371 (4688)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 37.8¢	$7.55	—	-$7.55	47% 2139-2368 (4507)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100	Downavg 60¢	$3	$5	+$2	50% 91-91 (182)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 56.4¢	$27.64	—	-$27.07	59% 3783-2578 (6361)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	37% 1383-2353 (3736)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 62¢	$3.72	—	-$3.72	42% 1736-2377 (4113)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$502.96

Value

$491.57

PnL

-$6.7

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

Both legs:

Up$252.450¢-$252.4

Down$245.5650¢+$245.7

Invested

$277.2

Value

$280

PnL

+$2.8

Record

98%

3857-81 (3938)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$57.41

Value

$69

PnL

+$23.63

Record

58%

3692-2676 (6368)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$30.21

Value

—

PnL

-$30.21

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$17.5

Value

—

PnL

-$17.5

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$7.55

Value

—

PnL

-$7.55

Record

47%

2139-2368 (4507)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100

Invested

$3

Value

$5

PnL

+$2

Record

50%

91-91 (182)

Invested

$27.64

Value

—

PnL

-$27.07

Record

59%

3783-2578 (6361)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

1383-2353 (3736)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$3.72

Value

—

PnL

-$3.72

Record

42%

1736-2377 (4113)

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xa2c5df7b...5f0155

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794701700

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Down — $280

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $69

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

ohioism

Up — $0

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $5

aaa221

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Up — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

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