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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$167.69

Combined PnL

-$463.37

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares553

Combined PnL-$521.61

Down4 traders

Total Value$104.09

Total Shares104

Combined PnL+$58.24

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50.5¢	$507.4	—	-$500.91	54% 3632-3064 (6696)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$64.01	$63.6	-$0.41	51% 3248-3166 (6414)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.1¢	$27.35	—	-$27.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.6¢	$36.66	$63.6	+$26.94
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 73.1¢	$28.43	$35.12	+$6.7	49% 2317-2371 (4688)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 11.1¢	$5.77	$51.96	+$46.19	50% 1577-1608 (3185)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$9.27	—	-$9.27	50% 2462-2507 (4969)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 77.5¢	$9.3	$12	+$2.7	58% 3692-2676 (6368)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 73¢	$5.03	—	-$5.03	59% 3783-2578 (6361)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 54¢	$3.24	—	-$3.24	42% 1736-2377 (4113)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100	Downavg 47¢	$2.35	$5	+$2.65	50% 91-91 (182)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 22¢	$3.16	—	-$3.16	37% 1383-2353 (3736)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$507.4

Value

—

PnL

-$500.91

Record

54%

3632-3064 (6696)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$64.01

Value

$63.6

PnL

-$0.41

Record

51%

3248-3166 (6414)

Both legs:

Up$27.3535.1¢-$27.35

Down$36.6657.6¢+$26.94

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$28.43

Value

$35.12

PnL

+$6.7

Record

49%

2317-2371 (4688)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$5.77

Value

$51.96

PnL

+$46.19

Record

50%

1577-1608 (3185)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$9.27

Value

—

PnL

-$9.27

Record

50%

2462-2507 (4969)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$12

PnL

+$2.7

Record

58%

3692-2676 (6368)

Invested

$5.03

Value

—

PnL

-$5.03

Record

59%

3783-2578 (6361)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$3.24

Value

—

PnL

-$3.24

Record

42%

1736-2377 (4113)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100

Invested

$2.35

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.65

Record

50%

91-91 (182)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$3.16

Value

—

PnL

-$3.16

Record

37%

1383-2353 (3736)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8efb2c6c...758213

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794698100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Down — $35.12

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $51.96

dvasdkasodk

Up — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $12

aaa221

Up — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $5

antsaslyku

Up — $0

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