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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

10

Down 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$818.69

Combined PnL

-$15.25

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$323.69

Total Shares324

Combined PnL+$45.78

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares591

Combined PnL-$61.02

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$535.34	$495	+$7.33	54% 3546-3013 (6559)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$247.42	—	-$247.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$254.82	$495	+$254.65
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 86.5¢	$177.82	$205.56	+$27.75	51% 3203-3131 (6334)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$43.59	$43	-$0.59	58% 3639-2637 (6276)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 86.8¢	$22.51	$25.93	+$3.42	59% 3720-2542 (6262)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.25	—	-$0.25	37% 1362-2297 (3659)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 75.8¢	$15.31	$20.2	+$4.89	49% 2276-2326 (4602)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 55.7¢	$8.35	$15	+$6.65	49% 1545-1582 (3127)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.13	—	-$0.13	47% 2089-2333 (4422)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 82¢	$9.02	$11	+$1.98	47% 2188-2425 (4613)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 44¢	$1.32	$3	+$1.68	48% 2150-2369 (4519)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 9.8¢	$61.48	—	-$60.64	42% 1702-2303 (4005)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$535.34

Value

$495

PnL

+$7.33

Record

54%

3546-3013 (6559)

Both legs:

Up$247.4249.7¢-$247.32

Down$254.8251.5¢+$254.65

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$177.82

Value

$205.56

PnL

+$27.75

Record

51%

3203-3131 (6334)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$43.59

Value

$43

PnL

-$0.59

Record

58%

3639-2637 (6276)

Invested

$22.51

Value

$25.93

PnL

+$3.42

Record

59%

3720-2542 (6262)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.25

Value

—

PnL

-$0.25

Record

37%

1362-2297 (3659)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$15.31

Value

$20.2

PnL

+$4.89

Record

49%

2276-2326 (4602)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$8.35

Value

$15

PnL

+$6.65

Record

49%

1545-1582 (3127)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$0.13

Value

—

PnL

-$0.13

Record

47%

2089-2333 (4422)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$9.02

Value

$11

PnL

+$1.98

Record

47%

2188-2425 (4613)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

$3

PnL

+$1.68

Record

48%

2150-2369 (4519)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$61.48

Value

—

PnL

-$60.64

Record

42%

1702-2303 (4005)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9ef1e0d1...c26658

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794689100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $205.56

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $43

aaa221

Down — $25.93

antsaslyku

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $20.2

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $15

ohioism

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $11

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $3

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