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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Resolved Down. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Up 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$783.88

Combined PnL

-$90.68

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares332

Combined PnL-$140.51

Down5 traders

Total Value$93.88

Total Shares94

Combined PnL+$49.83

Up — 38%Down — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$541.69	$497.13	+$13.47	54% 3484-2956 (6440)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$248.67	$497.13	+$253.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$242.44	—	-$240.37
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 55.3¢	$174.36	$192.87	+$18.51	51% 3138-3071 (6209)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.3¢	$106.63	$192.87	+$86.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.2¢	$67.72	—	-$67.72
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 59.6¢	$135.1	—	-$135.1	58% 3619-2623 (6242)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 45.2¢	$13.39	$29.6	+$16.21	37% 1347-2255 (3602)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 40.8¢	$18	$40	+$22	59% 3675-2516 (6191)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 43¢	$6.02	$14	+$7.98	44% 2059-2654 (4713)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 70¢	$5.8	—	-$5.8	48% 2157-2382 (4539)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100	Downavg 83¢	$4.15	$5	+$0.85	50% 87-87 (174)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 16.7¢	$33.2	—	+$0.39	50% 2249-2257 (4506)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 46.9¢	$2.48	$5.28	+$2.8	49% 1520-1565 (3085)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$541.69

Value

$497.13

PnL

+$13.47

Record

54%

3484-2956 (6440)

Both legs:

Down$248.6750¢+$253.84

Up$242.4449.2¢-$240.37

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$174.36

Value

$192.87

PnL

+$18.51

Record

51%

3138-3071 (6209)

Both legs:

Down$106.6355.3¢+$86.24

Up$67.7242.2¢-$67.72

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$135.1

Value

—

PnL

-$135.1

Record

58%

3619-2623 (6242)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$13.39

Value

$29.6

PnL

+$16.21

Record

37%

1347-2255 (3602)

Invested

$18

Value

$40

PnL

+$22

Record

59%

3675-2516 (6191)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$6.02

Value

$14

PnL

+$7.98

Record

44%

2059-2654 (4713)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$5.8

Value

—

PnL

-$5.8

Record

48%

2157-2382 (4539)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100

Invested

$4.15

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.85

Record

50%

87-87 (174)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$33.2

Value

—

PnL

+$0.39

Record

50%

2249-2257 (4506)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$2.48

Value

$5.28

PnL

+$2.8

Record

49%

1520-1565 (3085)

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd706c303...47fc09

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794682800

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $29.6

aaa221

Down — $40

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $14

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $5

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $5.28

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