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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Down 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$640.95

Combined PnL

-$76.97

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$151.9

Total Shares152

Combined PnL-$5.78

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares130

Combined PnL-$71.19

Up — 44%Down — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$517.13	$489.05	-$7.92	54% 3449-2937 (6386)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$249.52	—	-$249.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$245	$489.05	+$241.59
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 63.7¢	$111.59	$88.19	-$23.4	51% 3103-3041 (6144)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$27.57	—	-$27.57	58% 3610-2614 (6224)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Upavg 28.2¢	$11.16	$30.56	+$19.39	49% 1497-1559 (3056)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 85.2¢	$27.05	$25.15	-$1.85	50% 2368-2397 (4765)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 58¢	$21.16	—	-$21.16	59% 3649-2497 (6146)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$7.92	$8	+$0.08	98% 3651-75 (3726)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Downavg 75¢	$9.85	—	-$9.85	71% 1579-644 (2223)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 16.6¢	$2.65	—	-$2.65	47% 2042-2277 (4319)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 27.8¢	$9.96	—	-$9.96	37% 1340-2240 (3580)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$517.13

Value

$489.05

PnL

-$7.92

Record

54%

3449-2937 (6386)

Both legs:

Down$249.5249.7¢-$249.51

Up$24550.1¢+$241.59

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$111.59

Value

$88.19

PnL

-$23.4

Record

51%

3103-3041 (6144)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$27.57

Value

—

PnL

-$27.57

Record

58%

3610-2614 (6224)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$11.16

Value

$30.56

PnL

+$19.39

Record

49%

1497-1559 (3056)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$27.05

Value

$25.15

PnL

-$1.85

Record

50%

2368-2397 (4765)

Invested

$21.16

Value

—

PnL

-$21.16

Record

59%

3649-2497 (6146)

Invested

$7.92

Value

$8

PnL

+$0.08

Record

98%

3651-75 (3726)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

—

PnL

-$9.85

Record

71%

1579-644 (2223)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$2.65

Value

—

PnL

-$2.65

Record

47%

2042-2277 (4319)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

—

PnL

-$9.96

Record

37%

1340-2240 (3580)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x41c027e0...2b0a3a

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794679200

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $88.19

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $30.56

dvasdkasodk

Up — $25.15

aaa221

Down — $0

hoodquant

Up — $8

BoneOhio

Down — $0

ohioism

Down — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $0

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