Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
5
Down 80%
1 arb excluded
$590.94
$15.83
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.3¢ | $503.2 | $490 | -$6.17 | 54% 3449-2937 (6386) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.3¢ | $248.27 | — | -$251.17 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$245 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $41.62 | $57 | +$15.38 | 51% 3103-3041 (6144) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $9.15 | $15 | +$5.85 | 58% 3610-2614 (6224) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $11.88 | $12 | +$0.12 | 42% 1643-2244 (3887) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $14.06 | $16.94 | +$2.88 | 59% 3649-2497 (6146) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Upavg 12.9¢ | $8.4 | — | -$8.4 | 49% 1497-1559 (3056) |
Invested
$503.2
Value
$490
PnL
-$6.17
Record
54%
3449-2937 (6386)
Both legs:
Invested
$41.62
Value
$57
PnL
+$15.38
Record
51%
3103-3041 (6144)
Invested
$9.15
Value
$15
PnL
+$5.85
Record
58%
3610-2614 (6224)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$12
PnL
+$0.12
Record
42%
1643-2244 (3887)
Invested
$14.06
Value
$16.94
PnL
+$2.88
Record
59%
3649-2497 (6146)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$8.4
Value
—
PnL
-$8.4
Record
49%
1497-1559 (3056)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $57
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down — $15
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $12
aaa221
Down — $16.94
cryingbabydicer87
CTRUp — $0