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UpDownUpUp
ohioismCTR<$100Up
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100UpDown
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Up 67%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$546.01
Combined PnL
-$15
Smart Money Signal
Up
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up0%
Down100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Down2 traders
Total Value$51
Total Shares51
Combined PnL-$7.29
Up4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares36
Combined PnL-$7.71
Down — 33%Up — 67%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $519.9 | $495.01 | -$8.03 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.7¢ | $253.48 | — | -$253.58 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.3¢ | $248.88 | $495.01 | +$245.55 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $57.7 | $50 | -$7.7 | 58% 3558-2569 (6127) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 43.6¢ | $4.95 | — | -$4.95 | 37% 1289-2149 (3438) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $0.76 | — | -$0.76 | 50% 2116-2116 (4232) |
ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $1.1 | — | -$1.1 | 47% 1952-2164 (4116) |
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $0.9 | — | -$0.9 | 44% 1940-2509 (4449) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $0.59 | $1 | +$0.41 | 60% 3515-2365 (5880) |
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100Invested
$519.9
Value
$495.01
PnL
-$8.03
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Both legs:
Up$253.4849.7¢-$253.58
Down$248.8850.3¢+$245.55
0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100Invested
$57.7
Value
$50
PnL
-$7.7
Record
58%
3558-2569 (6127)
AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100Invested
$4.95
Value
—
PnL
-$4.95
Record
37%
1289-2149 (3438)
UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100Invested
$0.76
Value
—
PnL
-$0.76
Record
50%
2116-2116 (4232)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
—
PnL
-$1.1
Record
47%
1952-2164 (4116)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.9
Value
—
PnL
-$0.9
Record
44%
1940-2509 (4449)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$0.59
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.41
Record
60%
3515-2365 (5880)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x2fdff520...2d0c67
Slug
xrp-updown-15m-1794660300