Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
7
Down 43%
1 arb excluded
$735.06
-$64.81
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.7Β’ | $526.66 | $495.07 | +$7.79 | 54% 3273-2778 (6051) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 48.6Β’ | $240.5 | $495.07 | +$254.19 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50.7Β’ | $251.13 | β | -$246.4 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99Β’ | $167.31 | $169 | +$1.69 | 98% 3425-72 (3497) |
![]() cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 35Β’ | $15.75 | $45 | +$29.25 | 48% 1394-1507 (2901) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 32.5Β’ | $8.45 | $25.99 | +$17.54 | 47% 2017-2278 (4295) |
![]() ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 76.8Β’ | $15.35 | β | -$15.35 | 47% 1952-2164 (4116) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 67Β’ | $4.06 | β | -$4.06 | 60% 3515-2365 (5880) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 1Β’ | $1.68 | β | -$1.68 | 49% 2245-2302 (4547) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 63.8Β’ | $94.39 | β | -$92.2 | 58% 3558-2569 (6127) |
Invested
$526.66
Value
$495.07
PnL
+$7.79
Record
54%
3273-2778 (6051)
Both legs:
Invested
$167.31
Value
$169
PnL
+$1.69
Record
98%
3425-72 (3497)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$15.75
Value
$45
PnL
+$29.25
Record
48%
1394-1507 (2901)
Invested
$8.45
Value
$25.99
PnL
+$17.54
Record
47%
2017-2278 (4295)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$15.35
Value
β
PnL
-$15.35
Record
47%
1952-2164 (4116)
Invested
$4.06
Value
β
PnL
-$4.06
Record
60%
3515-2365 (5880)
Invested
$1.68
Value
β
PnL
-$1.68
Record
49%
2245-2302 (4547)
Invested
$94.39
Value
β
PnL
-$92.2
Record
58%
3558-2569 (6127)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
hoodquant
Down β $169

cryingbabydicer87
Down β $45
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down β $25.99

ohioism
CTRUp β $0
aaa221
CTRUp β $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp β $0
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
CTRUp β $0