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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$621.14

Combined PnL

$14.96

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders
Total Value$125.99
Total Shares126
Combined PnL+$30.96
Up5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares138
Combined PnL-$16
Down — 44%Up — 56%
BY
ByteBadger92ARB<$100
Down

Invested

$526.75

Value

$495.15

PnL

-$6.14

Record

54%

3248-2750 (5998)

Both legs:

Down$255.3651.6¢+$246.16
Up$244.849¢-$252.3
0X
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
Down

Invested

$78

Value

$102.15

PnL

+$24.15

Record

58%

3554-2561 (6115)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$9.07

Value

$15.34

PnL

+$6.27

Record

60%

3496-2347 (5843)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Down

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

98%

3400-72 (3472)

0X
0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100
Down

Invested

$3.01

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.49

Record

48%

76-83 (159)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$2.65

Value

—

PnL

-$2.65

Record

48%

1389-1500 (2889)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.66

Value

—

PnL

-$1.66

Record

44%

1926-2494 (4420)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.1

Value

—

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

1281-2136 (3417)

UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$10.47

Value

—

PnL

-$10.47

Record

50%

2099-2099 (4198)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.12

Value

—

PnL

-$1.12

Record

49%

2245-2302 (4547)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x86d0a8cf...5f67bc
Slug
xrp-updown-15m-1794658500

Traders in this Market

BY

ByteBadger92

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$6.14
0X

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $102.15

+$24.15
AA

aaa221

Down — $15.34

+$6.27
HO

hoodquant

Down — $5

+$0.05
0X

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $3.5

+$0.49

cryingbabydicer87

CTR

Up — $0

-$2.65

G-Penis-Monster

CTR

Up — $0

-$1.66
AN

antsaslyku

CTR

Up — $0

-$0.1
UN

uninformedfloww

CTR

Up — $0

-$10.47
DV

dvasdkasodk

CTR

Up — $0

-$1.12
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