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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$829.2

Combined PnL

-$225.8

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$335.29

Total Shares335

Combined PnL+$132.15

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares429

Combined PnL-$357.96

Down — 60%Up — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 51.4¢	$533.79	$493.9	+$1.29	54% 3222-2710 (5932)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$252.05	—	-$245.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$243.38	$493.9	+$246.89
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 40.4¢	$74.61	$134.29	+$59.68	51% 2945-2881 (5826)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$99	$100	+$1	98% 3371-72 (3443)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 29.3¢	$22	$75	+$53	48% 1378-1482 (2860)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 83¢	$33.64	—	-$33.64	50% 2078-2073 (4151)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 28¢	$4.91	$10	+$5.09	37% 1273-2122 (3395)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 13¢	$1.3	$10	+$8.7	47% 1950-2185 (4135)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 74.8¢	$26.11	—	-$14.68	60% 3476-2322 (5798)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$2.52	—	-$2.52	41% 1475-2082 (3557)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 22¢	$1.32	$6	+$4.68	48% 1927-2124 (4051)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Upavg 78.7¢	$307.12	—	-$307.12	58% 3542-2552 (6094)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$533.79

Value

$493.9

PnL

+$1.29

Record

54%

3222-2710 (5932)

Both legs:

Up$252.0551.4¢-$245.61

Down$243.3849.3¢+$246.89

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$74.61

Value

$134.29

PnL

+$59.68

Record

51%

2945-2881 (5826)

Invested

$99

Value

$100

PnL

+$1

Record

98%

3371-72 (3443)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$22

Value

$75

PnL

+$53

Record

48%

1378-1482 (2860)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$33.64

Value

—

PnL

-$33.64

Record

50%

2078-2073 (4151)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$4.91

Value

$10

PnL

+$5.09

Record

37%

1273-2122 (3395)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$1.3

Value

$10

PnL

+$8.7

Record

47%

1950-2185 (4135)

Invested

$26.11

Value

—

PnL

-$14.68

Record

60%

3476-2322 (5798)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$2.52

Value

—

PnL

-$2.52

Record

41%

1475-2082 (3557)

Invested

$1.32

Value

$6

PnL

+$4.68

Record

48%

1927-2124 (4051)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Invested

$307.12

Value

—

PnL

-$307.12

Record

58%

3542-2552 (6094)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x30c6ef58...b64f14

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794654900

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $134.29

hoodquant

Down — $100

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $75

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

antsaslyku

Down — $10

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $10

aaa221

Up — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

ohioism

Down — $6

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