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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 89% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

9

Down 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$154.65

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$907.14

Total Shares907

Combined PnL+$177.8

Up1 trader

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,273

Combined PnL-$332.45

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$507.2	$500.94	+$3.35	55% 3113-2587 (5700)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250.45	$500.94	+$250.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$246.72	—	-$247.14
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 70.7¢	$282.16	$399.03	+$116.87	58% 3492-2495 (5987)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 75.1¢	$216.54	$237.09	+$25.01	51% 2869-2774 (5643)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$109.24	$109.35	+$0.11	51% 1264-1206 (2470)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 85.4¢	$51.25	$60	+$8.75	48% 1355-1450 (2805)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 68¢	$34	$50	+$16	47% 1939-2183 (4122)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 65.6¢	$39.11	$29.43	+$4.07	60% 3365-2262 (5627)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 68¢	$10.2	$15	+$4.8	47% 1893-2128 (4021)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 69¢	$5.05	$7.24	+$2.19	37% 1244-2078 (3322)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR	Upavg 23.8¢	$333.9	—	-$332.45	41% 1393-1983 (3376)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$507.2

Value

$500.94

PnL

+$3.35

Record

55%

3113-2587 (5700)

Both legs:

Down$250.4550¢+$250.49

Up$246.7250.1¢-$247.14

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$282.16

Value

$399.03

PnL

+$116.87

Record

58%

3492-2495 (5987)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$216.54

Value

$237.09

PnL

+$25.01

Record

51%

2869-2774 (5643)

Invested

$109.24

Value

$109.35

PnL

+$0.11

Record

51%

1264-1206 (2470)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$51.25

Value

$60

PnL

+$8.75

Record

48%

1355-1450 (2805)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$34

Value

$50

PnL

+$16

Record

47%

1939-2183 (4122)

Invested

$39.11

Value

$29.43

PnL

+$4.07

Record

60%

3365-2262 (5627)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$10.2

Value

$15

PnL

+$4.8

Record

47%

1893-2128 (4021)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$5.05

Value

$7.24

PnL

+$2.19

Record

37%

1244-2078 (3322)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR

Invested

$333.9

Value

—

PnL

-$332.45

Record

41%

1393-1983 (3376)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb5dcd2e4...034fa2

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794640500

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $399.03

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $237.09

0x50f7

Down — $109.35

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $60

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $50

aaa221

Down — $29.43

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $15

antsaslyku

Down — $7.24

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

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