Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

XRP Up or Down - November 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
10
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$998.45
-$30.44
Smart Money Signal
5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.1Β’ | $506.06 | $495.75 | -$1.29 | 55% 3034-2491 (5525) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50.1Β’ | $249.91 | β | -$249.78 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $247.76 | $495.75 | +$248.49 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 56.2Β’ | $367.08 | $362.49 | -$4.59 | 51% 2812-2714 (5526) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99Β’ | $99 | $100 | +$1 | 98% 3131-65 (3196) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99Β’ | $25.92 | $23 | -$2.92 | 50% 2202-2243 (4445) |
![]() BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 54.2Β’ | $15.51 | β | -$15.51 | 71% 1422-567 (1989) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 51Β’ | $5 | β | -$5 | 38% 1224-2020 (3244) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.8Β’ | $5.37 | β | -$5.37 | 41% 1336-1928 (3264) |
![]() ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 74Β’ | $3.7 | β | -$3.7 | 48% 1833-1999 (3832) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 37.4Β’ | $4.57 | $12.21 | +$7.64 | 47% 1854-2076 (3930) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 60Β’ | $3 | $5 | +$2 | 60% 3298-2213 (5511) |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Upavg 1Β’ | $4 | β | -$4 | 59% 3410-2403 (5813) |
Invested
$506.06
Value
$495.75
PnL
-$1.29
Record
55%
3034-2491 (5525)
Both legs:
Invested
$367.08
Value
$362.49
PnL
-$4.59
Record
51%
2812-2714 (5526)
Invested
$99
Value
$100
PnL
+$1
Record
98%
3131-65 (3196)
Invested
$25.92
Value
$23
PnL
-$2.92
Record
50%
2202-2243 (4445)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$15.51
Value
β
PnL
-$15.51
Record
71%
1422-567 (1989)
Invested
$5
Value
β
PnL
-$5
Record
38%
1224-2020 (3244)
Invested
$5.37
Value
β
PnL
-$5.37
Record
41%
1336-1928 (3264)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.7
Value
β
PnL
-$3.7
Record
48%
1833-1999 (3832)
Invested
$4.57
Value
$12.21
PnL
+$7.64
Record
47%
1854-2076 (3930)
Invested
$3
Value
$5
PnL
+$2
Record
60%
3298-2213 (5511)
Invested
$4
Value
β
PnL
-$4
Record
59%
3410-2403 (5813)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down β $362.49
hoodquant
Down β $100
dvasdkasodk
Down β $23

BoneOhio
CTRUp β $0
antsaslyku
CTRUp β $0
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
CTRUp β $0

ohioism
CTRUp β $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down β $12.21
aaa221
Down β $5