Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
XRP Up or Down - November 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
5
Down 80%
1 arb excluded
$505
-$42.91
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 56% 2475-1962 (4437) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $38.49 | — | -$38.49 | 59% 3030-2107 (5137) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $1.8 | — | -$1.8 | 38% 771-1268 (2039) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $5.17 | — | -$5.17 | 60% 2584-1729 (4313) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $5 | +$2.7 | 46% 1383-1602 (2985) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $0.15 | — | -$0.15 | 47% 1444-1636 (3080) |
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
2475-1962 (4437)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.49
Value
—
PnL
-$38.49
Record
59%
3030-2107 (5137)
Invested
$1.8
Value
—
PnL
-$1.8
Record
38%
771-1268 (2039)
Invested
$5.17
Value
—
PnL
-$5.17
Record
60%
2584-1729 (4313)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.7
Record
46%
1383-1602 (2985)
Invested
$0.15
Value
—
PnL
-$0.15
Record
47%
1444-1636 (3080)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e
CTRDown — $0
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
CTRDown — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $5
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown — $0