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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$356.41

Combined PnL

-$413

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares567

Combined PnL-$527.08

Down3 traders

Total Value$224.7

Total Shares225

Combined PnL+$114.08

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2466-1957 (4423)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 47.2¢	$95.88	$203	+$107.12	59% 3010-2084 (5094)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 80.6¢	$174.23	$131.71	-$42.51	50% 1977-1974 (3951)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.6¢	$106.22	$131.71	+$25.49
└ Up leg	Upavg 45¢	$68	—	-$68
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$13.75	—	-$13.75	50% 1445-1426 (2871)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$13.69	$16.7	+$4.86	60% 2531-1695 (4226)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 30¢	$7.78	—	-$7.78	47% 975-1099 (2074)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 30¢	$1.8	—	-$1.8	37% 716-1225 (1941)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100	Downavg 58¢	$2.9	$5	+$2.1	48% 66-71 (137)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$2.5	—	-$2.5	46% 1350-1577 (2927)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 25¢	$1.25	—	-$1.25	48% 1361-1500 (2861)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2466-1957 (4423)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$95.88

Value

$203

PnL

+$107.12

Record

59%

3010-2084 (5094)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$174.23

Value

$131.71

PnL

-$42.51

Record

50%

1977-1974 (3951)

Both legs:

Down$106.2280.6¢+$25.49

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$13.75

Value

—

PnL

-$13.75

Record

50%

1445-1426 (2871)

Invested

$13.69

Value

$16.7

PnL

+$4.86

Record

60%

2531-1695 (4226)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$7.78

Value

—

PnL

-$7.78

Record

47%

975-1099 (2074)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.8

Value

—

PnL

-$1.8

Record

37%

716-1225 (1941)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.1

Record

48%

66-71 (137)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$2.5

Value

—

PnL

-$2.5

Record

46%

1350-1577 (2927)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

—

PnL

-$1.25

Record

48%

1361-1500 (2861)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4bd08f1c...fd1c34

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794521700

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $203

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

aaa221

Down — $16.7

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819

Down — $5

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

ohioism

Up — $0

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