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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Down 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$683.24

Combined PnL

$20.87

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$183.24

Total Shares183

Combined PnL+$118.23

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares264

Combined PnL-$97.35

Up — 25%Down — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 51.6¢	$530.83	$500	-$16.99	56% 2372-1839 (4211)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.5¢	$252.5	$500	+$244.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.6¢	$262.96	—	-$261.89
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Upavg 35.5¢	$64.47	$181.7	+$117.23	59% 2959-2052 (5011)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 39.6¢	$17.4	—	-$17.4	38% 880-1457 (2337)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$7.05	—	-$7.05	60% 2431-1634 (4065)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$4.5	—	-$4.5	44% 1316-1666 (2982)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$3.8	—	-$3.8	47% 1347-1530 (2877)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 29¢	$1.45	—	-$1.45	47% 935-1043 (1978)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Upavg 35¢	$0.54	$1.54	+$1	51% 1376-1320 (2696)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 35¢	$63.16	—	-$63.16	50% 1859-1828 (3687)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$530.83

Value

$500

PnL

-$16.99

Record

56%

2372-1839 (4211)

Both legs:

Up$252.550.5¢+$244.9

Down$262.9651.6¢-$261.89

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Invested

$64.47

Value

$181.7

PnL

+$117.23

Record

59%

2959-2052 (5011)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$17.4

Value

—

PnL

-$17.4

Record

38%

880-1457 (2337)

Invested

$7.05

Value

—

PnL

-$7.05

Record

60%

2431-1634 (4065)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

—

PnL

-$4.5

Record

44%

1316-1666 (2982)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$3.8

Value

—

PnL

-$3.8

Record

47%

1347-1530 (2877)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$1.45

Value

—

PnL

-$1.45

Record

47%

935-1043 (1978)

uninformedfloww<$100

Invested

$0.54

Value

$1.54

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

1376-1320 (2696)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$63.16

Value

—

PnL

-$63.16

Record

50%

1859-1828 (3687)

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7ed8d3ba...7d2fc2

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794507300

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $181.7

antsaslyku

Down — $0

aaa221

Down — $0

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

uninformedfloww

Up — $1.54

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $0

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