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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Up 63%

Total Value

$267.29

Combined PnL

-$573.58

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares694

Combined PnL-$563.52

Down3 traders

Total Value$267.29

Total Shares267

Combined PnL-$10.06

Up — 63%Down — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 62.4¢	$268.65	$247.29	-$21.36	51% 1741-1694 (3435)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$9.35	—	-$9.35	60% 2327-1560 (3887)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Upavg 13.9¢	$9.72	—	-$9.72	47% 870-993 (1863)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 25¢	$3.75	$15	+$11.25	47% 1280-1435 (2715)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$7.35	—	-$7.35	44% 1249-1571 (2820)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	49% 860-907 (1767)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Upavg 35.7¢	$37.1	—	-$37.1	59% 2924-2024 (4948)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$268.65

Value

$247.29

PnL

-$21.36

Record

51%

1741-1694 (3435)

Invested

$9.35

Value

—

PnL

-$9.35

Record

60%

2327-1560 (3887)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$9.72

Value

—

PnL

-$9.72

Record

47%

870-993 (1863)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$15

PnL

+$11.25

Record

47%

1280-1435 (2715)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$7.35

Value

—

PnL

-$7.35

Record

44%

1249-1571 (2820)

Invested

$4.95

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

860-907 (1767)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$37.1

Value

—

PnL

-$37.1

Record

59%

2924-2024 (4948)

Smart Money Signal

Up

5 of 8 top traders (63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x322530b4...515afd

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794491100

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $247.29

aaa221

Up — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $15

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

0x50f7

Down — $5

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Up — $0

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