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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

XRP Up or Down - November 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

6

Down 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$542.23

Combined PnL

-$13.76

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$42.23

Total Shares42

Combined PnL+$5.03

Down3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares64

Combined PnL-$18.79

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 66.9¢	$29.69	$27.21	-$2.48	51% 1741-1694 (3435)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 50¢	$7.5	$15	+$7.5	47% 1280-1435 (2715)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Downavg 27.6¢	$19.34	—	-$13.96	59% 2924-2024 (4948)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Downavg 18¢	$0.9	—	-$0.9	47% 870-993 (1863)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 37.9¢	$6.15	—	-$3.93	60% 2327-1560 (3887)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 57¢	$0.01	$0.02	+$0.01	46% 1227-1428 (2655)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

Both legs:

Up$25050¢+$250

Down$25050¢-$250

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$29.69

Value

$27.21

PnL

-$2.48

Record

51%

1741-1694 (3435)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$7.5

Value

$15

PnL

+$7.5

Record

47%

1280-1435 (2715)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Invested

$19.34

Value

—

PnL

-$13.96

Record

59%

2924-2024 (4948)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$0.9

Value

—

PnL

-$0.9

Record

47%

870-993 (1863)

Invested

$6.15

Value

—

PnL

-$3.93

Record

60%

2327-1560 (3887)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.02

PnL

+$0.01

Record

46%

1227-1428 (2655)

Smart Money Signal

Down

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x764df358...f1439e

Slug

xrp-updown-15m-1794490200

Traders in this Market

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $27.21

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $15

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down — $0

cryingbabydicer87

Down — $0

aaa221

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0.02

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