XRP Up or Down - November 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (93%) · Down at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 93%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$556.92

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 100¢

+61% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up1 trader

Total Value$510

Total Shares500

Combined PnL+$10

Down13 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,639

Combined PnL+$546.92

Up — 7%Down — 93%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Down 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$510	+$10	56% 2343-1812 (4155)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Downavg 49.4¢	$197.4	$392	+$194.6	59% 2910-2008 (4918)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710	Downavg 90.8¢	$353.25	$388.96	+$35.71	37% 598-1014 (1612)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 45.1¢	$197.61	$316.47	+$119.23	51% 1663-1626 (3289)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 48.8¢	$79.9	$160.4	+$80.5	51% 1179-1131 (2310)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$121.6	$121.66	+$0.06	48% 803-867 (1670)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 44.3¢	$31.14	$68.88	+$37.74	47% 809-896 (1705)
0X 0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100	Downavg 50.2¢	$32.92	$64.21	+$31.29	48% 57-61 (118)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$32.09	$56.23	+$24.35	60% 2276-1514 (3790)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 48.7¢	$7.85	$15.8	+$7.95	48% 2099-2308 (4407)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 68¢	$8.16	$11.76	+$3.6	47% 1241-1387 (2628)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 43¢	$5	$11.39	+$6.39	38% 818-1357 (2175)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 50¢	$5	$9.8	+$4.8	46% 1190-1388 (2578)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 85¢	$4.6	$5.3	+$0.7	47% 1384-1531 (2915)

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$510

PnL

+$10

Record

56%

2343-1812 (4155)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Down

Invested

$197.4

Value

$392

PnL

+$194.6

Record

59%

2910-2008 (4918)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down

Invested

$353.25

Value

$388.96

PnL

+$35.71

Record

37%

598-1014 (1612)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$197.61

Value

$316.47

PnL

+$119.23

Record

51%

1663-1626 (3289)

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$79.9

Value

$160.4

PnL

+$80.5

Record

51%

1179-1131 (2310)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$121.6

Value

$121.66

PnL

+$0.06

Record

48%

803-867 (1670)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$31.14

Value

$68.88

PnL

+$37.74

Record

47%

809-896 (1705)

0x06b2934b382D4429D50d7239eE375a76167f9f35-1723887278819<$100

Down

Invested

$32.92

Value

$64.21

PnL

+$31.29

Record

48%

57-61 (118)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$32.09

Value

$56.23

PnL

+$24.35

Record

60%

2276-1514 (3790)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$7.85

Value

$15.8

PnL

+$7.95

Record

48%

2099-2308 (4407)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$8.16

Value

$11.76

PnL

+$3.6

Record

47%

1241-1387 (2628)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$11.39

PnL

+$6.39

Record

38%

818-1357 (2175)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$4.8

Record

46%

1190-1388 (2578)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$4.6

Value

$5.3

PnL

+$0.7

Record

47%

1384-1531 (2915)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

92% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Down 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.